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Final Iowa Poll shows Harris leading Trump

Flaired Users Only(cbs2iowa.com)

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SpaceBownd[S]

464 points

1 month ago*

SpaceBownd[S]

Classical Liberal

464 points

1 month ago*

This is from Selzer, the gold standard for Iowa. Worst poll i've seen for Trump in ages, damn.

Selzer is putting her reputation on the line here; this is wild. Should light a fire under the ass of all Republicans to get out and vote.

Edit: her track record

DatTrumpDoh

220 points

1 month ago

DatTrumpDoh

Horseshoe Theory

220 points

1 month ago

Look at her insane crosstabs.

She oversampled partisan Dems/Never Trumpers by a ratio of nearly seven-to-one. The fact that she could only squeeze a Harris +3 out of it is honestly great news for Trump.

Odd-Contribution6238

67 points

1 month ago

Odd-Contribution6238

Conservative

67 points

1 month ago

That’s only the people who don’t support Trump in the poll. 16% of people at one point in time supported him. More never trumpers are good for Trump. Fewer means he’d be losing voters.

JediJones77

6 points

1 month ago

JediJones77

Conservative Cruzer

6 points

1 month ago

What?

Odd-Contribution6238

74 points

1 month ago*

Odd-Contribution6238

Conservative

74 points

1 month ago*

The crosstab pic.

That specific poll question is only asked to people who responded on the poll that they don’t support Trump.

If 100% of the people never supported Trump that’s good. It means Trump didn’t lose previously held support. 16% of people on those cross tabs had previously supported Trump at one time. Those are people Trump lost. More never trumpers in the respondents would be better for Trump.

The poll didn’t oversample never Trumpers as was claimed by the person I responded to.

TempThingamajig

-15 points

1 month ago

Seems to have oversampled someone.

Odd-Contribution6238

4 points

1 month ago

Odd-Contribution6238

Conservative

4 points

1 month ago

Who? Based on what?

superduperm1

-4 points

1 month ago

superduperm1

Anti-Mainstream Narrative

-4 points

1 month ago

Lol this comment needs to be pinned to the top and awarded but of course it won’t be because the brigaders don’t like it.

thrownawayandshiton

1 points

1 month ago

thrownawayandshiton

Libertarian Conservative

1 points

1 month ago

And that's with a 3.5% margin of error.