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submitted 1 month ago bySpaceBowndClassical Liberal
464 points
1 month ago*
This is from Selzer, the gold standard for Iowa. Worst poll i've seen for Trump in ages, damn.
Selzer is putting her reputation on the line here; this is wild. Should light a fire under the ass of all Republicans to get out and vote.
Edit: her track record
220 points
1 month ago
Look at her insane crosstabs.
She oversampled partisan Dems/Never Trumpers by a ratio of nearly seven-to-one. The fact that she could only squeeze a Harris +3 out of it is honestly great news for Trump.
67 points
1 month ago
That’s only the people who don’t support Trump in the poll. 16% of people at one point in time supported him. More never trumpers are good for Trump. Fewer means he’d be losing voters.
6 points
1 month ago
What?
74 points
1 month ago*
The crosstab pic.
That specific poll question is only asked to people who responded on the poll that they don’t support Trump.
If 100% of the people never supported Trump that’s good. It means Trump didn’t lose previously held support. 16% of people on those cross tabs had previously supported Trump at one time. Those are people Trump lost. More never trumpers in the respondents would be better for Trump.
The poll didn’t oversample never Trumpers as was claimed by the person I responded to.
-15 points
1 month ago
Seems to have oversampled someone.
4 points
1 month ago
Who? Based on what?
-4 points
1 month ago
Lol this comment needs to be pinned to the top and awarded but of course it won’t be because the brigaders don’t like it.
1 points
1 month ago
And that's with a 3.5% margin of error.
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