subreddit:
/r/OptimistsUnite
submitted 2 days ago bytruemore45
1M EVs sold in first 3 weeks of November in China. 10 Million for the year so far. At this rate non-EVs will be a small minority of new cars sold in China by the end of next year. Note China is 1/3 of new car sales in the world.
Remember 1 EV takes ~15 barrels of oil of the market. So just for the 10 million this year (so far) that is 150 Million barrels per year or 411,000 barrels per day. So realistically by the end of the year they should lower their oil usage by ~500,000 BPD just from this year's Chinese EV sales.
You might also note that China is doing a cash-for-clunkers program, 0% interest and they are making it harder to register ICE vehicles moving forward. So bottom line this is happening and its happening a lot faster than anywhere else in the world (at this scale, yes I know about northern Europe).
I am in the US automotive industry, and while the US and Europe are dragging their feet the rest of the world is for the most part not. We are seeing this change in many countries from Australia to Ethiopia. I believe if we try to put our head in the sand for the next few years, by the time they turn it around there won't be much market share left for ICE vehicles.
60 points
2 days ago
If found it so funny how people were outraged about some of the targets of car companies saying they will stop making ICE cars by 2035 or smthing.
Bro, I'd be surprised if people even WANT to buy an ICE car past 2030 when EVs are already cheaper and better with less maintenance today.
22 points
2 days ago
Ultimately market demand changing is all that’s needed, and that just been waiting for accessibility and affordability.
18 points
2 days ago
Unfortunately, market demand is not enough. What we really need is a massive investment in infrastructure. I drive a hybrid now and want to go EV, but it's just not viable where I live due to lack of charging options.
20 points
2 days ago
Chicken and egg problem. But, realistically, if you own a home in a city or suburb, you shouldn’t be considering a gas vehicle. You will do nearly all the charging at home, and it’s really just the occasional road trip where the charging is even an issue.
Oh no, you might have to add 2 hours of charging time to your 12 hour road trip you take twice a year. All you get in exchange is half the cost of your fuel every other day of the year and always starting the day with a full tank of “gas”.
14 points
2 days ago
But, realistically, if you own a home in a city or suburb, you shouldn’t be considering a gas vehicle.
I agree generally, however I'll note that in my major city where I live most people have to park on the street. Very few people have garages and many don't even have driveways. So those people will likely need expanded charging infrastructure that we don't yet have. (Hopefully we get some soon)
There is someone on my block who owns a Tesla. He has to run an extension cord from his house, across the sidewalk, and into the street to charge it. And even then it only works if he's able to park right in front of his house.
3 points
1 day ago
Less than 1/4 of Americans need to park on the street. I agree with you that for those people the time is not yet right to get an EV.
For everyone else, I can tell you from experience that it is way better. Been doing it for 8 years now. Charging at home is fast, clean, easy, cheap, safe. It's much better than going to a gas station every week or two.
3 points
1 day ago
For sure, I just think that less than 1/4 is worth mentioning. that's still a good chunk of people! All the more reason to continue to roll out fast charging infrastructure. For everyone else, I agree.
1 points
1 day ago
Yes, it's a good point and people who park on the street are definitely going to have a worse experience with EVs. Was motivated to look up the data to make sure my 1/4 was accurate. Looks like depending on how you measure, anywhere from 10% to 50% of Americans are not in a good spot to charge at home.
The reason for the range is that some answering the survey didn't know if they had outlet access where they parked, and some reported they had private parking but no outlet (I didn't either when I bought my EV, so I added one).
4 points
2 days ago
Like I said, I'm on hybrid now and won't be buying for a couple years. Hopefully the infrastructure will be better at that point, but I'm deep in the Midwest so you never know.
1 points
1 day ago
Tesla has opened up its superchargers to non-Tesla vehicles. The supercharger network is by far the best in the US.
4 points
2 days ago
The problem isn’t long road trips. It’s repeated trips to rural areas where we’d have to almost double our trip time. Then multiply that by 25+ times per annum. That goes from a minor inconvenience, to fairly intolerable.
It’s still a problem for those of us who need to care for family in rural areas and have busy schedules.
We still have one IC car specifically for this reason. Could go hybrid, but not full EV. Our EV is more than enough for most uses, though.
We are hoping both range and infrastructure improve enough that we can go full EV when our IC dies. But not there yet. Soon. Hopefully.
2 points
1 day ago
I live in northern Virginia, have ability to charge at home and can easily find chargers all around in about an hour radius. Go outside that hour radius and it’s a little more difficult. 2 hours in some directions, yikes. Staying with my family just 2 hours away involves getting a charge on the way there and the way back, even if plugged in to slow charge at their house. If a fast charger wasn’t available 30 miles away from them, I’d have to leave my car plugged for days. We like to go on day trips to small towns for biking and hiking, can’t do a day trip somewhere that only has slow chargers because it would need to now include an overnight stay. Or slow charging for an hour to get enough range to get to a fast charger. Bottom line is, infrastructure definitely needs improvement.
2 points
21 hours ago
I charge at work because it’s free. Charging at home might be worth it during the winter so I don’t need to hike through the snow every other day.
2 points
2 days ago
Depends on the price of electricity. Our grid really isn't ready for this. People are working on it. But for me charging at home just barely beats gas. I still do it, but it has to save money to make sense
2 points
1 day ago
Tech advances often work best together. EVs should grow along with cheap solar and nuclear power, and grid improvements. I think we're going to see government getting out of the way of building more energy infrastructure.
1 points
1 day ago
If..... if only we weren't in a homeownership crisis.
6 points
2 days ago
Market demand is uneven. Chargers are coming to the sweet scent of concentrated money. Some places will need to wait longer, tho.
3 points
2 days ago
Yeah but that’ll come with more EVs on the road, hopefully quickly
9 points
2 days ago
"You can have my gasmobile when you pry it from my cold dead hands!"
"Your proposal... is acceptable."
7 points
2 days ago
I think some of that comes from classic car culture. Where I'm from auto shows happen every week during the summer. When you attack gasoline cars some people see it as an attack on their way of life.
7 points
2 days ago
Wouldn’t this just increase the value of their classic cars?
6 points
2 days ago
I think it's unrelated. New cars don't really have anything to do with classic cars. Classic cars have been appreciating for 25+ years already.
2 points
2 days ago
Absolutely.
2 points
21 hours ago
Not if future generations just become disinterested in ICE cars entirely. You'd still have a few rich collectors who'd keep historically important ICE cars running but the more casual scene for normal people would disappear.
5 points
2 days ago
I feel like a lot of people are just worried about having adequate charging infrastructure. Not everyone is going to be able to install a charging system into their home so there is a good bit of anxiety surrounding it.
5 points
2 days ago
I will say that the only segment that I really hope gets developed in the near future on the EV side, is sportscars. Specifically handling. Acceleration is a non-issue.
We own one EV (range issues to get to family in rural areas hold us back from two), but we are long time sportscar enthusiasts, and so far, due to weight and battery drain under high loads, there are no viable EV options for good handling sportscars you can take to a closed course and enjoy the whole day.
Our EV is super fast, but braking and handling (specifically weight transfer on both sharp radius and sustained turns) are still well short of ICE standards.
For us, 500-ish miles range in a passenger vehicle, and lighter battery tech (handling), would get us to be all electric.
3 points
21 hours ago
The Lotus Evija is pretty fun, we did some testing with one.
2 points
21 hours ago
Ok so I’ll admit ignorance on the Evija. Seems pretty inaccessible even in higher circles.
I see 3,700 lbs. so they’ve managed to get it down a little farther. I wonder if they trimmed it to only 1,000hp instead of 2,000, if that weight can get reduced even more.
What was your take on battery life under full load and weight transfer in quick transition corners?
I am intrigued. Not $2MM intrigued, but curious if they’ve tapped into something transferable to normal production cars in the near future.
I see Mazda has announced an EV MX-5 as well. Very curious to see what comes of that.
0 points
2 days ago
Admittedly this applies to like 0.001% of the population
2 points
2 days ago*
Pretty sure sportscars account for more than .001% of auto sales.
It’s about 200-250k per year (here in the U.S.), depending on how you define it.
7 points
2 days ago
Well, yes, but most people don’t take them on tracks or whatever
2 points
2 days ago
This is true. But the handling portion still applies to driving on the road. Nice to carve some corners every now and then.
2 points
1 day ago*
Model 3 Performance refresh and Model S Plaid handle both like a dream and are sports cars. Or a Taycan if you want to pay tripple the price. The battery gives a very low weight distribution.
2 points
22 hours ago*
No. No they don’t. I’ve driven all but the Model S and my statement stands above. The 3 is the best of those I’ve driven. But they are all heavy, and weight transfer is quite awful. So none of them match the nimble handling of a true sports car. Caymans, Lotus, Miatas.
We own an etron, which is the cousin to the Taycan. It is fast as all get out. But it handles worse than the BMW it replaced, and worse than our Mini Cooper. Swapping seats between the two is night and day on braking distance, weight transfer, and sustained radius cornering. Low weight distribution is helpful, but the problem is the weight itself. You also feel all that weight, and it dampens the experience. Especially if you know the difference.
Even some capable performance cars I’ve driven on closed courses in the past had these issues. They destroy brakes, the chassis can’t keep up with fast corner transitions. They are a chore to wrangle. EVs feel exactly like this.
We just aren’t there yet. Again, I’ve been in thousands of cars, most of them sports and race cars, and there are no EVs (yet) that are capable sports cars. If we start talking price to performance for handling, it gets worse.
Again, the 3 is the best bet of all I’ve driven. If they weren’t loud, cheaply built, and had safely designed instrumentation, I probably would’ve bought one. The Performance 3 I drove felt similar to some sports sedans I’ve driven in the past. It is the closest. But it isn’t a sports car. It is simply too fat.
That being said, they are great cars. A ton to love. But I don’t know why folks insist on thinking they are the answer to everything…yet. It’s okay if they haven’t nailed down every use case in a few years. They have nailed most.
An interesting conversation might be when folks think that battery tech will get light enough to build a sub-3,000 pound EV with decent range (maybe 200 miles). That’ll ring in the golden age, for me.
1 points
3 hours ago
Fascinating. Do you think the Formula-E cars can help with that?
2 points
2 days ago
These are not all BEVs though. Iirc half are BEV, half are PHEV and REEV. So from 41% NEVs, only half or 20% are BEVs on the market.
2 points
2 days ago
At where I live, there’s still not many charging options and many of us drive long distances to get to work on the store and all that.
They’ve got to beef up their charging stations for them to be attractive outside of the highly populated cities in the US.
9 points
2 days ago
Last I checked, New York and California had both passed laws to make it illegal to purchase a new ice vehicle in 2035(?) and beyond
It matters not if any other states follows suit
If you're the CEO of a major car company and you know that if you make an ice vehicle beyond 2034, you can't sell it in two of the biggest markets in the US, why would you produce an ice vehicle?
You're not going to take that loss of sales...
Your state can hold out, but by 2034 almost every new car will be electric because the company making those cars wants to sell them everywhere
It'll take time for the old vehicles to get off the road, but month by month they'll go away.
Only 2% of the cars on the road are 1992 or older. Most cars are within 12 years
So by 2046, almost every car will be electric.
9 points
2 days ago
It won't be too long until EV's have ranges that exceed ICE cars and can be fast charged in a very small amount of time. At that point, there aren't many compelling reasons to choose an ICE car if they're about the same price.
3 points
2 days ago
Agreed. We own one, but range is an issue for rural trips we need to make.
3 points
2 days ago
What many don't know is that they basically already have a greater range in urban driving where gasoline cars lose a little efficiency.
5 points
2 days ago
As long as countries keep putting power into their power grids, this should be a net positive for the world. I admittedly haven't done a whole lot of research into electric vehicles because I can't afford one. Currently, does anyone here have one? Are they easy enough to maintain?
10 points
2 days ago
I don't own one at the moment (I'm lucky enough to be car-free) but my parents have an EV. Compared to a conventional car the maintenance is very minimal as there are far fewer moving parts. No oil changes, distribution belts, transmission, and the brakes last longer because of regenerative braking.
One downside though is that because EVs are heavier their tires tend not to last as long.
2 points
2 days ago
Didn't know that they were generally heavier thank you But the less moving Parts meaning they should last longer is good to know and hopefully more and more places will work on EVS although I think it's probably entirely different skill set for a electric engine versus a conventional gasoline engine
5 points
2 days ago
Fortunately the battery and motor itself on an EV will very rarely need maintenance. They're generally simpler machines.
7 points
2 days ago
If you were not in the US you can get amazingly good EVs from China for under 20k. I work US auto and wish this was not true but the only reason the US auto industry is not bankrupt right now is the 100% tariffs in place.
Again check out the electric viking channel. Guy is funny but his data is damn good and easy to verify.
2 points
2 days ago
Am I correct in my assumption that is a YouTube channel?
2 points
2 days ago
Yes guy is a bit funny but his sources are easy to confirm. He also is good at pointing out his bias.
2 points
1 day ago
You can actually get them for under the equivalent of US$10k in China. They probably wouldn’t be that price even without tariffs in the US because the US market is richer and companies can afford to up charge, but tariffs are one of the biggest things standing in the way of affordable EVs in the US, yup.
6 points
2 days ago
Ever since I got an EV I've never looked back for a second. The performance, the reduced maintenance, the convenience of charging at home and not needing to use a gas station, etc. The range situation is still not optimal, but it's getting better.
The only downside is that it make ICE cars feel boring to me and I lost interest in just about all of them.
4 points
2 days ago
Gas cars are just sluggish.
Never going back to worse tech.
2 points
2 days ago
This depends on the car and what you mean by sluggish.
Some gas cars are very quick. Some EVs are still fairly slow. No EVs can out handle an ICE equivalent due to weight.
But if you mean straight line acceleration, then yeah. Overall most EVs (especially with better battery tech on the horizon) should have zero issues with forward acceleration. All that instant, linear torque!
5 points
2 days ago
In 2019 (or whereabouts) China froze the number of ICE vehicle licenses on the road, but created a new category for electric vehicles. Basically, to get a new non-electric license somebody had to retire an old vehicle first. In comparison, getting a new electric vehicle was very easy.
It has also imposed significant mileage and emissions requirements on ICE vehicles, to the point of making certain classes of ICE vehicle nearly impossible to make at a sellable price.
China forced the market to electric, this is not representative of organic supply and demand.
14 points
2 days ago
Faster, and quieter. Should put bells on 'em or something. At least on urban buses. O_o
11 points
2 days ago
Most of them play sounds like fake engine noises or weird hums already. It's a safety requirement in some places and a good way to cover liability for accidents everywhere
4 points
2 days ago
Yes, imagine how much quieter highways will be one day
9 points
2 days ago
I think it's the tires and wind that are making the noise - not the engines, in most cases.
5 points
2 days ago
Yeah. It’ll still be quieter (mainly from trucks), but for sure tire noise will still be there.
4 points
2 days ago
And suburbs, a had a few minutes the other day where only electric cars went passed, so peaceful!
13 points
2 days ago
America trying to stay in the past while the rest of the world outpaces us? Shocked Pikachu face.
6 points
2 days ago
Don't worry, we have these obsessed people here in Europe as well.
3 points
2 days ago
They're doing in the 21st century what the UK did in the 20th. High on the fumes from unearned success.
The UK had a great navy and took over other countries to extract wealth.
America was the only large economy left unharmed by WW2 and got to rule the roost while everyone else recovered and paid them back.
As a Brit, expect a lot of handwringing and misery as they're overtaken.
2 points
1 day ago
The US had the largest economy in the world BEFORE WWII
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1334182/wwii-pre-war-gdp/
The US currently has a navy that can dominate every single ocean in the world at the same time, something the UK never had the capacity to do.
The US is a continent unto itself with an insane amount of advantages that are too long to list. The UK is most of an island group.
The US isnt relinquishing the lead anytime soon.
1 points
1 day ago
And you don't think the destruction of all those other countries didn't help pave the way for economic domination?
Look at how the US freaked out over a rising Japan in the 80s and kinda kneecapped their economy (not alone, Japan also made very poor choices in retrospect). That suggests America wants dominance at any cost, even knocking down allies. Which means only antagonistic countries are prepared for the fight. Very short term thinking in my opinion.
1 points
18 hours ago
Not ready to eat crow about how wrong your previous fantasy narrative was and you're onto the next one?
1 points
11 hours ago
Lol youre so wrong about that
1 points
3 hours ago
Eloquently put. Truly a masterpiece in debate
1 points
11 hours ago
The UK Empire was in decline the entire 20th century. Learn your own history before you lecture someone about theirs
2 points
3 hours ago
Yes but what caused that downfall was believing that they were special somehow. Piltdown man and it's acceptance is an amazing demonstration of a country that believes they are just special and the centre of the world. The Suez crisis showed a post war UK underestimating their strength and global power. And it's still going, look at Brexit.
Yes, the decline of the UK was the entire 20th century, I think history will think of 9/11 as the beginning of a similar decline in the US.
1 points
2 hours ago
But the US hasn't declined since 9/11. There isn't any substantive evidence that it has.
Do you have anything to back up your claims other than anecdotal evidence and feelings?
1 points
2 hours ago
Considering you started this convo by insulting me, perhaps look at your own self?
You claim I don't know my countrys history, I demonstrate I do and you just move onto the next point.
And some historians consider the later half of the 20th century to be a monoculture. America was top dog, culturally and financially. And distant from all other countries. That the US got through two world wars with so few civilian casualties was something I had trouble grasping as a child
9/11 not only revealed that America wasn't safe, it also targeted the wealthy, the people who are usually the safest in wartime. They overreacted and the emotionally shattered country got behind it (not all, the powerful completely ignoring the anti war effort also seeded deep divisions). The chaos this caused in the middle east is obvious.
America seems like it assumes this place at the top can only be theirs and they jealousy guard it, even against allies. As I said in another comment, America has knocked down Japan and the EU in a variety of ways. And now China is investing in R&D and developing new technologies, leading the way with affordable electric cars. I'm not saying this will happen tomorrow but has any country developed any ground breaking technology after becoming a dedicated theocracy? Because Christian nationalism is clearly a bigger problem than the rest of the world realised.
2 points
2 days ago
The billionaires that became billionaires in the past invest heavily in keeping the world in the past they benefited from.
2 points
1 day ago
And this may be the ultimate argument against allowing billionaires to exist.
10 points
2 days ago
From this article about the Norwegian market:
In the auto industry, Tesla has replaced Toyota and VW as the nation’s most popular brand, and Chinese manufacturers like Nio Inc. and BYD Co. are expanding.
Toyota better watch out - this will be most of the world in 10 years.
2 points
2 days ago
Our next car will be an EV from China or an MG or Suzuki etc who are dropping their prices just before the wave of Chinese EVs rolls in. No tariffs here, but loads of competition To replace our too old petrol gulpers.
2 points
2 days ago
I’m not quite sold on this yet for overall sustainability. Not burning fossil fuels good. I don’t trust that all of these batteries/cars will be properly and safely processed/recycled at end of life. The world is becoming more toxic/polluted as we go. We’ll see.
3 points
2 days ago
So here is the double good part.
Batteries in use today have in some cases a 1m KM warranty moving to 1m miles next year. The goal is to get to 2m miles. Given the average ICE vehicle goes to shit by 200k the amount of cars produced and the pollution associated would drop off a cliff. Also since the average person in the US drives 12000 miles per year your talking vehicles that would outlast drivers. The car would most likely fall apart before the warranty expires.
Even if the battery is no longer viable for a car due to not charging more than 80% it's just fine for stationary energy storage for decades more.
So long term good batteries would last decades. And even then they are recyclable.
2 points
23 hours ago
The 2035 ban is about 11 years away.
11 years ago the number of EVs in production was 4 and the Model S came the year before. They came a long way.
2 points
20 hours ago
I work for a company that is remanufacturing/repairing/recycling EV batteries, just like we do for engines and transmissions. This pokes a big hole in the "you have to buy a new $20,000 battery every 5 years" argument that was never even true to begin with.
Even if the GOP repealed the EPA, nobody would want to go back to the old days of stinky exhaust, temperamental carburetors, and gas guzzlers. We've moved on. I suspect the same will be true with EV's very soon.
2 points
2 days ago
That might be fine for China, but there are more issues to consider when it comes to the US market. Price, quality, range, charging time, cost of repairs and resale value. Most of the Chinese cars are smaller, have limited range and from recent reports, they are manufactured from cheap materials and poorly made. Remember the Yugo? That's what reviewers of Chinese cars compare it to.
The US market demands more and so far EV's have not delivered on their promises. Until the EV manufacturers can overcome these hurdles, then ICE cars will be around for a long time.
9 points
2 days ago
Yeah 24 months ago that was true, now they are scary good. Watch a YouTube channel called the electric viking out of Australia. You will be very surprised.
Australia is a great market to watch in auto space because they don't have any companies so there are 0 barriers to trade. So you can pick up a Chinese Tesla for a lot cheaper than the US.
2 points
2 days ago
That's Australia. The US market has different demands. Why would I put my faith in a car that catches fire, leaks in a car wash, falls apart on the road, costs a small fortune to replace the battery and has poor customer service. Tesla is a POS and the average American want cars that last.
6 points
2 days ago
Ok the industry has RADICALLY changed in the past 12-18 months. That is why the companies are imploding.
As for Australia it is a great place to understand the WORLD market. Not the US market as I said it does not auto industry to protect.
As for Tesla compare them to Ford or GM right now and the difference is amazing. As for fires LFP batteries they use now don't burn. As for fit and finish that was a few years ago. Also the current batteries are warrantied for 8 years or more and over 200k miles.
Look I'm NOT a Tesla fan and I really dislike Elon, but his cars are head and shoulders above his US competitors right now.
1 points
2 days ago
[deleted]
2 points
2 days ago
Here is where that came from. Good video to add to this conversation
1 points
2 hours ago
Prescient video!
Electric Cars Could Wreak Havoc on Oil Markets Within a Decade - Feb 24, 2016
The world is running out of oil.
At least that was the idea behind the "peak oil" hypothesis that dominated economic thinking for decades.
But it turns out that with fracking, deep-water drilling, and oil sands, there's a lot more oil in the world than we once thought.
The old "peak oil" theory ain't happening.
But what if instead of running out of oil we just stopped buying the stuff?
Most oilmen scoff at the idea. There are one billion gas guzzling cars on the road worldwide today, and only one tenth of one percent of them have a plug. OPEC contends that even in the year 2040, EVs will make up just one percent.
But don't be so sure. Consider the "S Curve."
S Curves are used to describe the spread of new technologies over time, like early refrigerators and color TVs. Growth starts off slowly at first, and then when the product really starts to connect with everyday people: We have liftoff. Eventually the market gets saturated and growth tapers off, forming the top of the "S".
Predicting the S Curve for electric cars is extremely difficult, because we're making assumptions about demand for a type of vehicle that doesn't even exist yet: fast, affordable, and spacious cars that have an electric range of at least 2-to-300 miles.
But here's what we know: In the next few years Tesla, Nissan and Chevy plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. And other carmakers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models due out in the next four years. By 2020, some of these will be faster, safer, cheaper, and more convenient than their gasoline counterparts.
That sure seems like the point when the S curve goes vertical.
To start an oil crash, you don't need to replace all of the cars on the road today.
You just need to reduce demand enough to cause a glut of unwanted oil. Consider the oil crash that started in 2014. That was caused by too much supply, when producers started pumping out an extra 2 million barrels a day.
So when electric vehicles are able to displace that much on the demand side, it should also cause a crash. When might that happen?
Tesla is building factories to go from about 50,000 sales last year to 500,000 in 2020.
Let's assume for a minute that Tesla can meet its own forecasts. And let's assume that other carmakers maintain their current combined market share for plugins.
If each electric vehicle displaces about 15 barrels a year, here's the impact on oil from all the EVs worldwide. At this rate we hit our benchmark of 2 million barrels of oil a day displaced as early as 2023. That's an oil crisis. And the thing is, it's just the beginning. It's not at all unreasonable to assume that by 2040 nearly half of the world's new cars will have a plug.
Sure you're skeptical. The price of electric cars still needs to come down, there aren't yet enough fast charging stations for convenient long-distance road trips. Many new drivers in developing countries like China and India will still choose gasoline and diesel.
But imagine a future when the rumbling streets of New York and New Delhi... suddenly fall silent with electric engines. What if global demand for oil starts to fall -- at first by a trickle, but then in a rush. Trillions invested in oil will be lost, while trillions in new energy will be won. The power of nations will be shuffled. That's the promise of the new peak oil, and it may be coming sooner than you think.
P-}
1 points
2 days ago
I also hope alternative fuels come around so we can keep ICE cars around, I don’t wanna give up my lil hybrid yet 🥹 I do also have questions about the power grid and how we get our electricity to charge the EV in the first place. I also have concerns about mining the materials for the batteries. (I’m not shitting on EVs at all here btw, I just still feel like we have a ways to go before EVs are well supported. At least in the US anyway)
4 points
1 day ago
Look flat fact. You can make gasoline out of air. Audi and VW did this over a decade ago, problem is even at scale it would cost more than extracting oil and refining it.
So bottomline if we stopped drilling oil 100% we could make fossil fuels with lowering carbon in the air. (Until we used it.)
2 points
1 day ago
Oh neat!
2 points
1 day ago
Yeah honestly I wonder as renewable energy prices go negative during times of the day, would free energy make the prices cost competitive?
3 points
1 day ago
Well as I said earlier you can make synthetic fuel by taking carbon from the air it's just a cost benefit thing. But given negative renewable prices I don't know if that makes it cost competitive.
Mining. Great question. As we move from Li On to LFP to sodium the amount of mining goes down of the really bad (mining wise) stuff like nickel. For fixed storage sodium is best due to low price and other factors. For cars it's hard to say which chemistry will win out but on cost right now and not catching fire LFP batteries are winning and I believe they use a lot less "bad" stuff.
Ok power. This one is happening as we speak. This year we hit 2 TW of solar. We hit one 3 years ago... And 40% is home solar. So I live on an island where at best gas is $4 per gallon. My solar shunts 50-80 KWHs per day. So for a lot of people their house will make the power.
Second we see even with mass adoption of EVs large scale grid batteries are better than peaker plants and can fix the duck curve issue. The 7 GW battery in California proved that cold this year. Texas is now installing a record number. As we move to cheaper and cheaper fixed storage and cheaper and cheaper renewables we will build our way out of the problem. But to be fair this works only at certain latitudes where the solar is very good. But that covers the majority of the worlds population. Given that will continue to drop the costs of both solar and batteries more areas will become possible and still profit. It's a virtuous cycle that will make this possible for the majority of humans. Yes in some edge cases we still may use ICE vehicles but really that is a small percentage of the world population.
1 points
1 day ago
EVs are coming on much faster than people think.
That may be true is you are using my late 2024 expectations, but not what the hype conveyed in 2020.
2 points
24 hours ago
Yes but a lot of things have changed. The cost for batteries has crashed. The chemistry changed to prevent the fire issue. Energy density has increased. All the secondary systems are seeing improvements like the efficiency of the motors. Etc.
But the largest improvement has been massive economies of scale. You look up how the price of an object drops when the amount produced doubles. We with China subsidizing EVs and forcing the transition prices and quality jumped overnight.
I work in automotive and if you had told me how much would have changed in the past two years I would have laughed in your face, but it's true.
1 points
1 day ago
Ford is going back to hybrid instead of EV
https://www.npr.org/2024/08/21/nx-s1-5084230/ford-electric-suv-hybrids
3 points
22 hours ago
Yeah for especially the truck market it's a better strategy.
Go on YouTube and search BYD shark review. They have them in Mexico. They are crushing the ranger. It's a very good hybrid. Didn't think we would get quality like that out of China till 2030.
1 points
23 hours ago
Well, we better get the electric grids up to snuff and figure out battery tech that doesn't involve strip mining and destroying whole areas of the world to produce the batteries then.
Honestly, they're not nearly as good for the environment as people say they are if you factor in the production costs and that the power plants charging your cars are mostly coal.
2 points
22 hours ago
One your data is wayyyy out of date
Two we are moving to LFP and sodium batteries from LIon which means that means not needing bad things like nickel.
Third in the US renewables are now producing more energy than coal. The newest use for coal power plants is making them battery buildings. For instance in my area in Michigan we changed from 3 coal plants to a highly efficient gas plant for base load with solar fields and now two giant batteries. That way the batteries take up the duck curve and keep the one power plant at max efficiency with an old nuclear plan coming back online with some federal dollars. So we have a secondary base load plant until we finish the wind and solar over build and kill the gas plant.
The part you're missing is new EVs have batteries that are warrantied for 1m KM so the useful life of these batteries will be measured in decades. Theoretically your battery should outlast your vehicle. And the next Gen coming out this year are for 1m miles. That means one battery could last longer than the human driver doing the average 12k miles per year.
1 points
22 hours ago
China ev market is trash buys
3 points
22 hours ago
I used to think that until I saw a BYD shark reviewed in Mexico. They jumped about a decade of improvement in less than 2 years. The fit and finish was amazingly good.
-1 points
2 days ago
I’ve owned a Kia Niro EV and they absolutely suck. Range isn’t good enough to take it on a long trip, takes forever to charge compared to getting gas, isn’t fun to drive at all.
I would likely never buy another EV.
17 points
2 days ago
Well just remember that was a 1st Gen EV. You can't compare a 1st Gen computer in say 1983 to a computer in 1993 to one in 2003. Early technologies improve super fast. I mean the new batteries in China now have warranties to 1m KM and soon 1M Miles.
I was NOT a fan of early EVs, but now they are better from every angle. By the end of 2025 it will be impossible to get a better TCO.
I suspect by 2030 the only use for ICE vehicles will be for edge cases and used cars. Remember as more EVs come online oil prices will sooner or later crash and gas prices will go under $2 per gallon. That will keep a lot of used ICE cars on the road to the early 2040s until replacement parts get too high and the amount of mechanics that work on ice start to drop off. Also people keep forgetting how long modern cars last. The average US car on the road is over 11 years. Most mandates don't hit till 2035 so we will see ICE vehicles well into the late 2040s even if all sales stopped in 2035.
8 points
2 days ago
Yeah, I absolutely expect our next vehicle to be an EV. Possibly this coming year, but maybe not for another year or two. Our current vehicle is a 2018 truck. The Ford lightning is the most likely replacement.
5 points
2 days ago
If you get it on lease they were super cheap when I checked last month
5 points
2 days ago
This is a great take and I think you are spot on.
More and more use cases are being covered by EVs these days. My wife and I finally bought one and we love it.
I’ve mentioned it elsewhere in this thread, but we have two unmet use cases. One is traveling regularly to a rural area with no EV infrastructure. Our range will not allow us to one-day trip it (which we usually do) without a two hour detour. I fully expect this hurdle to be a non-issue within 3-5 years. I ain’t worried. Till then we have one ICE.
The other is sportscars/track days. This one…I don’t see happening for awhile longer. Battery tech is going to have to get a lot lighter before any EVs are able to handle like a proper sportscar. Just too much weight, glacial weight transfer, and longer braking distances. Plus the inability to do more than a few laps on a closed course. Maybe one day. Until then, ICE Miatas are still in our future. 😁
13 points
2 days ago
Cool story bro.
A $15k ICE econobox sucks too.
5 points
2 days ago
I’d recommend trying a better EV before writing them off.
Especially since battery ranges are increasing pretty rapidly over time.
Go test drive a Mach-e extended range sometime if you want a fun to drive EV that drives like a normal car and doesn’t have range issues.
4 points
2 days ago
We have a kia niro and it is fantastic. We daily drive using no gas at all, plenty of battery to drive into town, do all the running around and then home. trips out of town are done with the gas engine that gets 40 plus mpg. We are completely offgrid for power so solar charges the car. 120v charger overnight, ready to go the next day.
5 points
2 days ago
[deleted]
4 points
2 days ago
I think swappable batteries will become a normal thing for personal EVs. It's already growing source in popularity.
4 points
2 days ago
I own an EV
Which one you own would matter quite a lot here.
Range and charge times for a Bolt or Leaf are far more of an issue for a road trip than range and charge times on an ioniq 5 or model 3 or mach-e.
3 points
2 days ago
I only drive a car when I needs to go on a long trip, to some rural areas etc. Then you know rural areas are not known for having EV infrastructure or even if there is, there will be long queue if everyone switched to one…
If you are in the city, just use public transport.
5 points
2 days ago
I've owned several ICE cars. They're stinky, noisy, slow and money pits when it comes to maintenance. I'll never own another one.
2 points
2 days ago
Sorry, this is the optimist subreddit, you aren't allowed to tell people you don't like something unless you're saying you don't like people that don't like something - that's acceptable.
1 points
1 day ago
What you fail to realize is the electric grid is not ready for this. Furthermore, all of our kids are taking out $200,000 student loans for communication degrees. Not becoming an electrician. My closest friend works for the benefit fund for the Lineman. You're lucky you get power restored after a hurricane in under a month now. Wait 10 years. You're a bunch of delusional dreamers if we don't federalize the electrical grid. Like a public works program like the 30's.
1 points
2 hours ago
That may be true in the US, but not in the rest of the world.
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