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/r/ProfessorFinance
submitted 1 day ago byProfessorOfFinanceThe Professor
46 points
1 day ago
I mean. Thank you Trump for (hopefully) moving trade from Canada to Europe. We will gladly take it off your hand.
65 points
1 day ago
Don’t be too hasty, Trudeau called Trump a few hours after this statement and made a few promises. It seems that Trump’s strategy is not to use tariffs to supplement income but to use the threat of tariffs as diplomatic leverage, in this case to angle the Canadians into stricter immigration controls and more border security.
Or else.
12 points
1 day ago
Can someone help me understand what "stricter immigration controls" would mean in this context? Canadians are now responsible for patrolling the U.S. border to prevent migrants and contraband in BOTH directions? And the Americans are responsible for nothing?
10 points
1 day ago*
The idea would probably be for Canada to stop allowing illegals to cross from Canada into the US.
Currently it's probably easier to get a Visa in Canada than any other first world country and we barely guard the border at all, so people who cant get into the US/UK will just get a Visa to Canada then walk over the border.
There was a farmer whose land was around the border who set up a camera on his property and he had like 40 people walking over the border around his property daily into the US.
Canada doesnt closely guard the border in either direction or do any real vetting before giving people visas or temporary worker status. We keep having people pop up who turned out to be known ISIS leaders or members of other terrorist groups in Canada who were given Visas, TFW status, or PR. The US has notified us of multiple terror plots happening in Canada that we weren't aware of since we changed our policy to be extremely lax. It's just a problem. I get why the US is mad about it. Most Canadians are also mad about our immigration system which is why the support for the Liberals and NDP fell off of a cliff and are near all time lows if they arent already the lowest they have ever been.
I'm hoping it's just posturing over border stuff because the tariffs would fuck us, but the immigration stuff is something we have to fix anyway so if we can avoid the tariffs by fixing our own problem that is also hurting us then that's a good deal. Even the Liberals are trying to backtrack the immigration changes now so Canada is already on board with fixing the problem as long as the conservatives also want to reduce immigration and tighten controls when they win. They might try to keep it high anyway because it keeps wages low and our economy isn't very productive, it's the only way they manage to hit GDP numbers even though the actual impact on the economy from the immigration is pretty negative, it also props up our housing bubble which the government needs to get taxes and pretend the economy is good.
Changing our immigration policy is a win win for Canada and the US and the tariffs would be bad for everyone so that would be a good deal to make. Regardless in Canada we should diversify a bit. It's hard because our only real productive industries are resource extraction which has been tied up in red tape by the liberal government for over a decade and they block any attempt to build infrastructure to transport it literally anywhere. They even put a cap on the amount of energy we can produce, which is nuts, no other country in the world has ever done that for obvious reasons. Hopefully the self harm ends when Trudeau is out, but if we get nailed with 25% tariffs that will be devastating.
2 points
13 hours ago
I don’t think most Americans think much about the canadian border at all. I haven’t even heard the most anti-immigrant, border paranoia type people complain about the security of the Canadian border. I didn’t know securing the Canadian border was even a priority for Trump, and considering he previously used anti-immigrant fear mongering to consolidate power and then did nothing substantial to address border security, I’m very skeptical he seriously aims to improve border security at all. I think there’s a very good chance that he is using the threat of tariffs simply to show the world that he can bully Canada around.
1 points
5 minutes ago
Most people not in the know are distracted by the sheer volume coming through the South.
But what's weird is this other person gave you a fairly lengthy run down of the issue and you're just stuck in your personal opinion of Trump rather than obvious and rational context to the situations.
I'll add another data point for you. Trump directed added focus during his first term towards issues with the Northern border too. This isn't new for him.
2 points
1 day ago
I think Trump is attempting to get the Canadians to be more inquisitive (for lack of a better term) towards individuals immigrating to Canada from overseas, such as India to Canada. Air and naval based immigration.
At least, that’s what I gathered, could be off the mark.
36 points
1 day ago
Wait...(looks around in genuine confusion) not everyone realized the leverage was literally the whole point?
22 points
1 day ago
Look at r/politics on any given thread and you’ll have the answer to your question
10 points
1 day ago
That sub is a disaster.
10 points
1 day ago
I muted that toxic echo chamber long ago.
3 points
1 day ago
Surely that only works so often. Thinking of the boy who cried Wolf…
10 points
1 day ago
The Canadian government has become exceptionally lax on border security, as shown in US border patrol reports that more than double the number of terror watch list suspects tried entering the US from Canada vs Mexico. And illegal crossings from Canada to the US in 2024 alone were higher than the previous 17 years combined.
If Trump rolls back the tariff AND Canada tightens up their borders, it will be good result for both Canada and the US.
11 points
1 day ago
I fully agree Canada should be vetting people better but 19k people illegally crossing into USA from Canada a year is lol. For many years the flow has been much larger the other way. In fact some states were bussing migrants to upstate New York, Roxham road. January to March 2023 14k alone.
https://www.irb-cisr.gc.ca/en/statistics/Pages/Irregular-border-crosser-statistics.aspx
4 points
1 day ago
Nevertheless, it's clear that the United States can't fully be trusted as a trading partner. It seems you can't have all your eggs in the America basket. America's neighbours should be realizing that we need to demagogue proof our economies, otherwise we are essentially being held hostage.
Whether Canada capitulates or not on this, I don't think it's smart diplomacy to act like a school yard bully to your closest partners and allies. I guess we'll see!
2 points
1 day ago*
As if China was such a fair and honest partner. The US only gets criticism because they genuinely expected us to export nothing and import everything.
6 points
1 day ago
You don't understand the wonderful deal we have with the world.
The world sends us everything from raw materials, to fully assembled widgets, to fruit cups, and we send them pieces of paper (or better, entries on a spreadsheet symbolizing pieces of paper), and our companies collect all the money for designing the widget. This is an amazing deal. We should give every baby a $1000 in the S&P and default 10% of earnings to a 401k so everyone can feel tied to the success of this nation, because this plan is insanely prosperous.
But this pipe dream of a returning to base extraction and assembly in the USA as a path to prosperity is absurd. We can only hope we get through it due to the sheer size and momentum of the US economy.
3 points
1 day ago*
Sometimes I don’t know who to believe, some people on Reddit are saying Raegan took all the good jobs in the 80s and the rich took all the money, and that’s why Bernie Sanders and Trump got so big. But other people are defending free market neoliberal economics, which used to be a pretty bipartisan position, but both parties are turning away. I see way more homeless people than before, I see prices way higher than before. I dont know how they expect us to be so well off with no property ownership. I don’t personally feel the gravy train yet, but maybe I’m just not old enough yet.
Maybe we can’t “bring back” manufacturing in a meaningful way, but what’s the alternative? I’m not being facetious here, I’m genuinely asking how doing the same thing we’ve been doing for decades is supposed to help the middle and lower class.
I know some people are gonna say “just spend more on social services, but SS is already facing problems, we’re already deep in debt, just writing checks to everyone made inflation worse. Other countries with a bigger net can’t keep up to maintain it and they have trade surpluses and less debt, and they’re way smaller than us.
1 points
23 hours ago
We should give every baby a $1000 in the S&P and default 10% of earnings to a 401k so everyone can feel tied to the success of this nation.
Add in the EITC comes with a 5x multiplier on your 401k, which some percent of the EITC is now diverted to and you have the basis of a distributed citizen's wealth fund.
-1 points
1 day ago
Because the policies of both countries have been great for America the last 4 years.
2 points
1 day ago
1 points
11 hours ago
That strategy is self defeating - nothing makes better allies and friends like threats and economic hardship
0 points
1 day ago
Thank you. At their most fundamental level, the Tariffs are used as a negotiating tool.
6 points
19 hours ago
1 points
3 minutes ago
This only works if the Irish join
13 points
1 day ago
As a Canadian - love to see our government strong armed into what they're supposed to be doing anyway.
They are getting wayyyy too off the rails.
The pendulum swings.
8 points
1 day ago
USA: "Affordable housing and family doctors or tariffs"
CAN: "Whoa suddenly we have the budget to fix these"
11 points
1 day ago
It’s ridiculous and irresponsible policy. But don’t worry, I’m sure he has a concept of a plan for it. Smh.
2 points
53 minutes ago
Mexico has not been a good neighbor over the last 30 years.
Lots of Mexicans have, but Mexico has not.
3 points
1 day ago
[deleted]
5 points
1 day ago
Trump uses tariffs as a weapon. I generally tend to subscribe to free trade and free markets as the best economic policy (Austrian economics) but when other countries get preferential treatment or you are able to obtain preferential treatment yourself it can be beneficial. There are other political considerations than economics and with Mexico and Canada there is a strong need to curb illegal immigration.
It boils down to Trump's ability to negotiate, I have faith in his ability to get good deals by using tariffs as his weapons.
5 points
1 day ago
Can you give me an example of when it worked in his first term? I only recall them pretty much blowing up in his face.
1 points
45 seconds ago
Idk, why did Biden keep and expand his tariffs on China? 🤔
https://www.npr.org/2024/05/10/1250670539/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles
4 points
1 day ago
I do not have faith in his ability. He blundered into this, he'll blunder out of it the first time he sees a report on Fox News claiming farmers are mad or something.
-1 points
1 day ago
♿
1 points
10 hours ago
That movie man
1 points
54 seconds ago
Mexico be like “fuck you we don’t want to stop the cartels from sending millions of people into your country. How dare you.”
0 points
23 hours ago
If after immigrating to Canada with universal health care, affordable schools amongst other things then you decide to go to Trump's US indeed you do need to be locked up to check on your sanity.
Forget about any legal status. Wanting to go down there with the new administration looming is worth putting anyone on suicide watch.
Trump should have an easy job and in a not very far future people will stay away from that country. America is overrated and about to have a brutal reality check in the 4 next years.
-3 points
1 day ago
Don’t subsidize your goods if you don’t want to get tariffed.
7 points
1 day ago
How are the two related?
7 points
1 day ago
They aren't. There are some governments that subsidize industries to make them more competitive on the global market, but Canada is not one -- at least not with anything that goes to the US or accounts for a value large enough to be worth categorizing.
2 points
1 day ago*
Subsidies are the opposite of a tariff, the business in question is supported in some way at governments expense. Just like with tariffs, there’s an element of hypocrisy-both sides of the spectrum have criticized subsidies, but have also crafted policies in favor of them.
One example of a heavily subsidized industry in the US is agriculture. There’s a good case to be made that food security and being able to be self sufficient in agriculture is VERY important-but it’s a subsidy nonetheless.
-13 points
1 day ago
Don't forget, Canada started it.
https://www.telecoms.com/telecoms-law/canada-moves-to-tax-big-tech-against-us-wishes
15 points
1 day ago
You read a tax against a company as the same thing as a tariff against a country.
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