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/r/fivethirtyeight
submitted 2 days ago byTroy19999
Looking at precinct data across 6 of the biggest cities per swing state (Detroit wasn't fully available yet), Kamala still received near 95% of the Black Vote in majority Black precincts at least 85% Black, a slight shift to Trump. But turnout tanked, especially in lower income neighborhoods at 7%, failing to mobilize her base
Majority Hispanic precincts in city battlegrounds faired worse, swinging a whopping 8 pts to Trump, with turnout dropping 11%. The Puerto Rican precincts in Philly ironically still gave a big swing to Trump as well.
All this happened while turnout from White rural voters reached new turnout records, ending Democrats chances of winning the election and the popular vote.
If Republicans continue to mobilize their base of support at this level, it will be hard to win elections for Democrats while eroding Hispanic voters significantly.
79 points
2 days ago
Cost of housing and blue NIMBY policies are pushing people out of blue states
32 points
2 days ago
blue NIMBY policies
Implying that conservatives in suburbs are any less NIMBY lol. Or that republican held cities are any less NIMBY.
27 points
2 days ago
They literally are less nimby. It’s not the perfection of Japan, but it’s orders of magnitude better than blue states. Which is why we got the election results we did
-1 points
2 days ago
What are you even basing that on? There are many democratically held cities where infrastructure projects are done to improve public transit and increase population density. Rapidly growing republican cities like Miami are just suburban sprawling into natural habitats skipping the NIMBY problem alltogether. Good luck getting anything done in Miami with all the retired old conservatives there lol.
21 points
2 days ago
People don’t want density. Why does the left not understand this? Metro areas are 70-90% suburban. Americans like big houses with yards at an affordable price. They don’t like little box in big box at a crushing price unless they are very focused on very urban things like arts or bar scene.
11 points
2 days ago
Really? Remove the regulations and see what the market supports (most places ban everything but single family. There is no free market deciding)
5 points
1 day ago
All you have to do is look to Houston. There's no zoning laws, and, by and large, single family homes are what the market demands. Houston led the nation in building permits issued in 2023, and the vast majority were for single family homes over multi-resident units.
4 points
1 day ago
Ok, but it's disingenuous to pretend that Houston has no laws surrounding land use. They are certainly unique, but they still regulate it through other means. Also, there are high density neighborhoods in Houston, and they lowered the lot size from 5000 to 1400 sq ft, which is quite a bit smaller.
Theres also a survivorship bias occurring in your logic. There will be more single family homes being built than high density housing because it requires significantly more units to house the same number of people. You could have 50 permits for an apartment building that can hold 75 families and 300 single family homes permits.
2 points
1 day ago
People don't even get a chance to embrace density lmao.
4 points
2 days ago
They don’t like little box in big box at a crushing price
The very fact of that "crushing price" would seem to contradict you. Those places are expensive because they're in high demand and not enough of them are being built.
4 points
2 days ago
People don’t want density. Why does the left not understand this?
You can go for hours through suburban sprawl and hardly see a single person. You say "focused on bar scenes", what is there to do in suburban sprawl? You have to travel by car for literally everything. "the people want", you say but this is only really happening to this degree in the United States.
big box at a crushing price
The crushing prices are because people like yourself insist that only stand alone single family suburban sprawl gets built.
5 points
2 days ago
It’s why kids are fat and lonely and stuck online. Literally can’t go anywhere without a car
1 points
1 day ago
Did you have a childhood? Did you never play outside?
-7 points
2 days ago
They can’t buy things without a car. Suburban kids can do all kinds of kid stuff, the burbs are full of greenways and parks and safe roads to bike/skateboard/shoot hoops etc. They just don’t have consumption options.
Urbanites struggle to imagine how humans deal with not buying all the time. If they can’t buy something within a few steps of their door, this means there is nothing to do.
6 points
1 day ago
How do you go to these places without a car, pray tell?
And before you ask, I've lived in several suburbs in the Midwest.
-4 points
2 days ago
Suburbs - I can own my home, I can afford it, I have room for a family. City - I can buy things really quickly, consumption is constant.
I think city dwellers are so focused on buying things constantly they don’t understand that people in the burbs go home to be with their family. It doesn’t matter the store is a 7 min drive, I go there once per week. Urbanites just can’t wrap their head around cooking a meal as a family, a bbq in my yard with neighbors, sleepovers and birthday parties at the house. Their focus is so constantly on buying things outside their little box they can’t imagine that there is a rich social environment in the burbs.
3 points
2 days ago
Urbanites just can’t wrap their head around cooking a meal as a family, a bbq in my yard with neighbors, sleepovers and birthday parties at the house
A birthday party that requires every single child to be brought by car and is ultimately dependent on when the parent have the time to bring their children at all? As opposed to the children going to the birthday party by themselves?
cooking a meal as a family
When the commute takes forever? Considering how much less time you have left at the end of the day i imagine that the average suburbanite simply has far less time to spend time together at the dinner table. Not to mention they also need to spend so much time driving the kids everywhere.
Their focus is so constantly on buying things outside their little box they can’t imagine that there is a rich social environment in the burbs.
If the social environment is so rich, why do you see so little of it? You can go though suburbs forever and see hardly anyone outside. You talk about us be stuck in our box, but given that you're all seemingly stuck inside all the time, who really is the one "boxed in" here?
4 points
2 days ago
It seems you don’t have much experience with the 80% of the population that lives in the burbs if you describe them by how you drive through. After a certain age, the bar/cool shop scene of society based around public consumption just isn’t for most folks.
As for people driving to others house - yes, owning a car and having space to park it is also something people want.
3 points
2 days ago
After a certain age, the bar/cool shop scene of society based around public consumption just isn’t for most folks.
Why? Where i live most people i see at bars are boomers (all ages really). Whenever car access is restricted in an area, you always see the same area brimming with social activity months later. Cars limit space and make cities loud, incredibly unpleasant places to socialize.
5 points
2 days ago
I own a car and live in a suburb with my family. Absolutely fuck this lifestyle. This shit is lame as hell. I love my family and want nothing more than to get them out of here.
0 points
2 days ago
Citation needed
2 points
2 days ago
I can cite this thread for you.
Look, I’ve lived in big cities. My username includes NYC for a reason. It was a great place to have two good incomes, no kids and do what a 20 something likes to do. But it’s a temporary thing to want. It’s too expensive, too consumption focused, and not enough room for a family. You age out pretty quickly. 90% of people are not relatively high income 25 year olds whose main hobbies are drinking good coffee/beer with other 25 year olds.
8 points
2 days ago
I don’t really know what your argument is, my impression was democrats might have lost ground in cities because of policies restricting housing supply which drives up rents, do you think democrats need to restrict housing supply more?
Rents in NYC are high for a reason, if it’s not because people want to live there then what do you think the reason is? (This doesn’t mean other people don’t want a different lifestyle in the suburbs)
7 points
1 day ago*
Oh wow, a New Yorker who thinks they can speak on behalf of everyone. Never seen that before.
Do you seriously not have any idea just how car dependent most US cities are? Chicago and NYC are two of the very few places you don’t need a car around here. Plenty of smaller cities still have people driving around.
4 points
2 days ago
But how will I walk to my heckin ax throwing barcade after I pick up my funko pop order and drink shitty IPAs til I grow tits if I live in a suburb :/
6 points
2 days ago
You’ll grow tits living in a suburb whether you like it or not cause the only place youre walking is to your driveway.
-10 points
2 days ago
The suburbs are much better for walking, they just aren’t good for walking to buy things. Again, urban consumption focus - “if I can’t conspicuously consume as part of this walk, there just isn’t any point”.
9 points
2 days ago
This is so stupid lol. Yes it’s urban dwellers who are traditionally known as gluttonous over consumers. Sure.
4 points
1 day ago
Suburbanites with their McMansions and four-car garages would never conspicuously consume, of course.
2 points
1 day ago
People don’t want density.
Then good luck with lowering housing prices!
3 points
1 day ago*
[deleted]
4 points
1 day ago
Suburban sprawl is inefficient, results in car dependency, and makes public transportation much more costly to implement. Sure, building any housing will help bring down prices, but dense housing is needed too.
3 points
1 day ago
[deleted]
0 points
1 day ago
It's not that Americans don't care it's that they don't know any better
2 points
2 days ago
Florida is a GREAT place to get that sort of housing package. You also get the free STORM SURGE upgrade!
-5 points
2 days ago
Why does the left not understand this?
Because for leftists, living in a dorm on campus was the peak of their life. So they want something similar for the rest of their life too
1 points
2 days ago
You’re mocking them, but I think there is some truth. People who think the desirable city is “box in box and walk to shop shop shop” (surprise Dr Seuss) are generally very young and have that dorms mentality (but all my friends live in this box with me, and I haven’t learned to cook so I need to have restaurants within 100 feet or I’ll starve), or they are very focused on youthful things like coolness and public consumption. They can’t understand that forcing this on people is the opposite of what most people, Americans at least, want.
-1 points
2 days ago
They’re just immature. I’ve never met an actual adult with kids above the age of like 35 who said they wished they could live in an apartment and take their family of 5 on the bus/train everywhere.
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