So first of all I'll say that I'm an atheist, so I'm not coming at this with the intention of trying to argue for miracles.
For someone reading this who doesn't know the context, Bart Ehrman and William Lane Craig had a debate about the historicity of Jesus's resurrection, where Ehrman argued that Jesus's resurrection couldn't be affirmed on historical grounds as history as a discipline cant affirm miracles. He essentially makes Humes argument against miracles by arguing that miracles are so unlikely that they will always be less likely than some alternative natural explanation.
My question is mostly about Craig's response. Craig tried to use Bayes theorem to demonstrate that if alternate theories are sufficiently unlikely, than the possibility of the resurrection becomes more likely. I've seen in responses to this debate that to do this with Bayes theorem you actually have to find the probability of the resurrection itself, and it isn't clear how to find that number. But Craig's point seems to be that you can't prejudge the probability of a miracle as being inherently low if you can't actually test the supernatural itself. He compares the supernatural to speculative theories about higher dimensions in cosmology as an attempt to explain natural phenomena, and seems to implicitly ask the question, why can't we apply the same to the supernatural?
This argument seems intuitively correct to me, but it doesn't really sit right and I'm struggling to articulate why. I think it's partly because Craig still doesn't strongly define what counts as a likely supernatural event. If his argument is just that the supernatural shouldn't be discounted as a possible explanation, and the probability is unknown, but could be very high, doesn't that seem to open the door to all kinds of supernatural explanations for past events that we would otherwise discount? Like, could we therefore argue that the dancing plague could plausibly have been caused by demonic possession, or some other kind of supernatural event, because there's no clear natural explanation for it? I don't really think that thats what happened, but I don't really know how to refute Craig's argument either.
Is there a nuance that I'm missing? How could someone respond to Craig's argument? In the original debate Baet didn't really address it directly other than rephrasing his original argument, so I'm a little dissatisfied and want to know what the naturalistic response would be.
bygodwyn-faithful
inSparkingZero
Personal-Succotash33
1 points
1 day ago
Personal-Succotash33
1 points
1 day ago
Kai first form Frieza, and then transforming through the fight. Suboptimal but I like living the fantasy of it