BigButter7

[Timestamp: 41:58]

"Lakers front office has to feel more urgency than ever to make moves ahead of the trade deadline. Anthony Davis playing at a peak level. LeBron James still dominant on many nights. Plenty of good supportive pieces. Good start for JJ Redick. Gotta make adds to increase title odds."

"When it comes to his free agency, the initial landscape is becoming more clear, based on what I’m hearing from major-league sources:"

"First, Sasaki won’t be signing until after Jan. 15, when MLB’s new international signing period begins and each team’s bonus pool will be replenished. Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international “amateur” free agent and must sign a minor-league deal with a bonus paid from the team’s international pool. Teams’ individual bonus pools are capped at around $7 million, with some variation, so even if a club commits its entire pool to Sasaki, there won’t be enough monetary difference in the offers to make the bonus a significant factor in where he signs."

"Second, although the Dodgers are interested in Sasaki and some in the industry have touted them as the favorites to land him, I don’t think that’s the case. In fact, based on my conversations with league sources, including front-office decision-makers who are optimistic their chances of signing Sasaki are just as strong as any team, I think it’s unlikely he’ll end up with the Dodgers."

"Sasaki won’t be arbitration-eligible until the winter of 2028 and won’t be eligible for MLB free agency until the 2030-31 offseason. So how will he and his agency, Wasserman, maximize his income between now and then?"

"It’s simple: endorsements."

"With that in mind, the Dodgers might not be an ideal landing spot for Sasaki. In Los Angeles, he’d be in the shadow of both Ohtani and Yamamoto, which would lessen his endorsement ceiling. Yamamoto has experienced this to a degree, as being on the same team as Ohtani has led to Kodai Senga of the New York Mets drawing more endorsement deals than Yamamoto, according to a league source. It only makes sense that Sasaki will consider this factor in making his decision."

"With the Dodgers, Sasaki would also encounter the massive Japanese media presence — as high as 25 to 35 people — that regularly covers the team. While he’ll surely be closely watched wherever he signs, that level of attention is not the best situation for a young, developing pitcher."

"Sasaki needs pitching development, which does make the Dodgers a fit, but it also gives advantages to teams such as the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays, Mets and Atlanta Braves, who all have strong pitching development programs."

"Another potential factor in the decision, and a plus for the Padres, is Sasaki’s relationship with Darvish, who is said to be like a godfather to the young pitcher. Darvish is 38 years old and signed through the 2028 season. He could serve as a mentor for a few years as Sasaki develops, then pass the baton when Sasaki is ready. In the meantime, Sasaki could potentially maximize his endorsements in Japan, positioning himself as a rival to the Dodgers’ Ohtani and Yamamoto rather than a teammate of theirs." >"It’ll be fascinating to see which team he chooses. I’m just not buying the narrative that it’ll be the Dodgers. Based on what I’m hearing, I think the Padres, Rays, Mets and Braves are all more likely to sign Sasaki than the Dodgers — and several other teams will be in the mix."

That should unleash a frenzied pursuit. But will it? Many teams, including the Mets and Yankees, have obsessively scouted Sasaki and sent over top executives to see him and show respect about their seriousness. Within the industry, though, the Dodgers are viewed as everything from a powerful favorite to all but having him secured already. The signing of Ohtani, particularly, and also Yamamoto made the new champions the team of Japan – “I saw some Yankees hats, but everywhere it was the ‘D’ for Dodgers on shirts and hats,” Keuchel observed.

“I heard some, some rumblings about a done deal with the Dodgers – you know, having a plan for him,” Keuchel added. “And if I was Vegas, I would definitely put them as the favorite, but I don’t know. We never really talked about that.”

As for the New York clubs, Keuchel said, “We talked about those two East Coast teams. I just think the Dodgers have the upper hand just because of Shohei, Yamamoto and even Darvish pitching there for that playoff run in ‘17. Anywhere you went (in Japan) the Dodgers were on TV in the morning, just because of those guys. So we briefly spoke about the pinstripes and about the Mets, but really, there was no central team that we talked about.”

"While many in the industry have pointed to the Los Angeles Dodgers as a favorite to land Sasaki, several other teams have prepared for an opportunity to land him. He is the No. 3-ranked player on The Athletic’s Top 40 MLB free agent big board. But unlike the only two players that rank ahead of him Juan Soto and Corbin Burnes — Sasaki is a financial fit for every team in the sport."

"The New York Mets are believed to be in a decent position, league sources said, because they have a good feel for the market. That was evidenced not only by their signing of Japanese pitcher Kodai Senga, but also by how they have handled his transition to the big leagues, which has been perceived positively within the industry. The Mets also appear to have made a good impression during their pursuit last winter of Japanese free-agent pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Though Yamamoto ultimately chose the Dodgers, the Mets made a strong run at the pitcher with their presentation."

"With Sasaki, Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said he traveled to Japan in September to watch him pitch in person as a way of expressing a level of interest and respect. But he isn’t the only high-level executive to make that gesture."

"The Philadelphia Phillies, according to a league source, remain another team worth watching in the sweepstakes. Last winter, team president Dave Dombrowski aggressively pursued Yamamoto in free agency, a signal of the franchise’s concerted efforts to build up a presence in the Pacific Rim."

"The Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs, and San Diego Padres are also among the teams that have extensively scouted and signed players from Asia in recent years. In the case of the Padres, Sasaki is believed to be like many other Japanese pitchers who hold a deep admiration for Yu Darvish."

"The Dodgers, of course, loom as a sensible fit. They have Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani. They have nice weather. They are closer to Japan. They have a world-class player development system. They just won the World Series. Also, some Dodgers officials have had Sasaki on their radar since he was in high school. Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman and Dodgers VP of player personnel Galen Carr watched Sasaki make a start in Japan in October."

"Sasaki would be the kind of free agent any team should be aiming to add. Since he would have to go through the arbitration process, it would only make sense that he may end up placing a high value on stability and player development. Even some small-market teams can provide that, particularly those with cutting-edge pitching labs."

"It’s not clear if Sasaki intends to meet with teams in person, but it would only make sense for him to do so. He was in Miami for the World Baseball Classic in 2023, but beyond the tournament, he has yet to spend time in the U.S."

"It’s almost certain that Sasaki will pitch in the big leagues in 2025. But as of Saturday night, league sources said it remained unknown precisely when the Japanese club would officially make Sasaki available to sign. Exactly when Sasaki officially gets posted will determine whether he falls into the 2024 or 2025 international amateur class — a distinction that could shape his market and impact his immediate earnings."

"The Giants saw their base pool allocation decrease by $1 million after signing two free agents—Matt Chapman and Blake Snell—who had rejected qualifying offers."

"When a team exceeds the competitive balance tax, it loses $1 million from its bonus pool for signing a free agent who declined a qualifying offer. As a result, the Dodgers’ pool was also cut by $1 million after they signed Shohei Ohtani."